Bottom Line: My Week 1 NFL Predictions

Boy oh boy — the NFL season is back and better than ever.

32 teams. 17 weeks. One champion.

Each week, I’ll be breaking down every matchup and sharing my predictions, who I think will win and why. By season’s end, I’m hoping to finish with a “winning” record of my own. So without further ado, let’s kick things off.

Thursday, Sept 4:

Cowboys at Eagles

Prediction: 27-10, Eagles win.
Actual: 24-20, Eagles win.

It’s no secret the Eagles are a cut above the Cowboys, especially now that Dallas has lost its defensive cornerstone, Micah Parsons, to the Packers. Fresh off a dominant Super Bowl-winning season, Philly looks poised to make another statement in 2025. With elite talent stacked across the roster, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them go back-to-back. Bottom line: the Eagles should win this game comfortably.

Friday, Sept 5

Chiefs vs Chargers (in São Paulo, Brazil)

Prediction: 17-14, Chiefs win.

Actual: 27-21, Chargers win.

To be honest, this game could swing either way. But with Patrick Mahomes holding a 10-2 career record against the Chargers, betting on the Chiefs feels like a smart play. After getting humbled by the Eagles in a lopsided 40–22 Super Bowl loss, Kansas City will be hungry to remind the league they’re still elite. Expect a bounce-back performance. Bottom line: Chiefs by three.

Sunday, Sept 7

Buccaneers at Falcons

Prediction: 23-20, Bucs win.

Actual: 23-20, Bucs win.

The NFC South is quietly leveling up. Bryce Young finally looks like he's finding his rhythm, Michael Penix Jr. brings real promise to Atlanta, and Baker Mayfield, well, he still knows how to ball when it counts. As for the Saints… we’ll get to them later. Personally, I see the division coming down to a battle between the Bucs and Panthers for the top seed. But for this game? Bottom line: Bucs by three.

Bengals at Browns

Prediction: 34-10, Bengals win.

Actual: 17-16, Bengals win.

After missing the playoffs last season, the Bengals have something to prove. Joe Burrow, firmly in the top-five QB conversation, is coming off a career year, and head coach Zac Taylor may be coaching for his job if Cincinnati falls short again. As for the Browns? Their season feels like a question mark. Joe Flacco starts Week 1, but with rookie Shedeur Sanders waiting on the sidelines, don’t be surprised if he gets his shot by midseason. Bottom line: Bengals win this one comfortably.

Dolphins at Colts

Prediction: 17-13, Dolphins win.

Actual: 33-8, Colts win.

This one’s not going to be flashy. Both teams are coming off 8–9 seasons, and while there’s talent on both sides, Miami just feels a little more put together right now. Tua’s healthy, the O-line looks stronger, and Tyreek Hill is still a game-changer. The Colts are rolling with Daniel Jones, which… Yeah, it could get messy. I think the Dolphins control the pace and grind out a win. Bottom line: Fins take it.

Raiders at Patriots

Prediction: 20-13, Raiders win.

Actual: 20-13, Raiders win.

Both teams are coming off rough 4–13 seasons, but the Raiders feel a little more ready to turn the page. Geno Smith brings veteran poise to Pete Carroll’s new-look offense, and with weapons like Tre Tucker and Jakobi Meyers, they’ve got just enough firepower to get it done. The Patriots, meanwhile, are still figuring things out under Mike Vrabel. Drake Maye has potential, but this offense might need a few weeks to find its rhythm. Bottom line: Raiders win a gritty one by a touchdown.

Cardinals at Saints

Prediction: 23-17, Saints win.

Actual: 20-13, Cardinals win.

This might surprise a few people, but I’m rolling with the Saints here, although I may be bias being a fan. Sure, Arizona has Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr., and they’re getting a lot of preseason hype. But the Saints are at home, and they’ve quietly built a scrappy roster under new head coach Kellen Moore. Spencer Rattler gets the start, and while he’s got plenty to prove, he’s got weapons in Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara to lean on. I think the Saints ride the energy of the Superdome and pull off a gritty win to open the season. Also something to note, the Saints have not lost a week one opener since 2018. Bottom line: Saints take it.

Steelers at Jets

Prediction: 24-13, Jets win.

Actual: 34-32, Steelers win.

41-year-old Aaron Rodgers makes his return to MetLife, but this time he’s suiting up for the Steelers. It’s a wild twist, but the bigger story might be on the Jets’ sideline. Justin Fields is now QB1, and with weapons like Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, and rookie Mason Taylor, this offense finally has some juice. The Jets’ defense is still elite, and they’ll make Rodgers uncomfortable behind a shaky Pittsburgh line. Fields won’t light it up, but he’ll make the plays that matter. Bottom line: Jets start strong and take this one by double digits.

Giants at Commanders

Prediction: 30-10, Commanders win.

Actual: 21-6, Commanders win.

Jayden Daniels is coming off a breakout season and looks even sharper heading into 2025. With Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, and a top-tier defense behind him, Washington should dominate this one. Russell Wilson might be starting for the Giants, but against this Commanders front? It’s going to be a long day. Bottom line: Commanders roll.

Panthers at Jaguars

Prediction: 27-13, Panthers win.

Actual: 26-10, Jags win.

Bryce Young finally looks like the guy Carolina drafted No. 1 overall. With Tetairoa McMillan and Chuba Hubbard leading the charge, the Panthers have the weapons to control the tempo. Jacksonville’s still figuring things out under new head coach Liam Coen, and Trevor Lawrence hasn’t looked sharp in preseason. Bottom line: Panthers take advantage and grab a solid road win.

Titans at Broncos

Prediction: 31-7, Broncos win.

Actual: 20-12, Broncos win.

Cam Ward’s NFL debut comes against one of the league’s nastiest defenses, and it won’t be pretty. Denver led the NFL in sacks last season and returns most of that unit. Bo Nix enters Year 2 with a loaded offense and a chip on his shoulder. Expect the Broncos to set the tone early and never look back. Bottom line: this one could get ugly fast.

49ers at Seahawks

Prediction: 24-20, Seahawks win.

Actual: 17-13, 49ers win.

Sam Darnold’s fresh start in Seattle has people talking, and after a career-best season in Minnesota, he’s got a chance to prove it wasn’t a fluke. The Seahawks’ defense under Mike Macdonald is legit—top 10 last year and only getting better. Brock Purdy’s coming off a rocky 2024, and while he’s got the weapons, Seattle’s home-field edge and defensive pressure give them the edge. Bottom line: close game, but the Hawks pull it out.

Lions at Packers

Prediction: 20-17, Packers win.

Actual: 27-13, Packers win.

Jordan Love is healthy, confident, and surrounded by weapons, including rookie WR Matthew Golden and Pro Bowl RB Josh Jacobs. Add Micah Parsons to the mix on defense, and Green Bay suddenly looks like a serious contender. Don’t get me wrong, the Lions are still solid, but with Ben Johnson gone there’s a bit of uncertainty. Bottom line: Packers grind out a tough divisional win at Lambeau.

Texans at Rams

Prediction: 14-10, Texans win.

Actual: 14-9, Rams win.

C.J. Stroud had a bit of a sophomore slump, but he’s still one of the league’s sharpest young passers. Houston’s defense is underrated, and they’ll take advantage of a Rams O-line that’s still shaky. Matthew Stafford is 37 and dealing with lingering back issues, if he’s not 100%, this offense could stall. Expect a low-scoring, defensive battle. Bottom line: Texans sneak out with the win.

Ravens at Bills (Sunday Night Football)

Prediction: 27-24, Bills win.

Actual: 41-40, Bills win.

Game. Of. The. Week. The NFL knew what they were doing when they picked this to be the first SNF game of the year. Two teams who could very likely win the Super Bowl… if choking wasn’t in their nature. It’s a playoff rematch from last season, and you can bet both teams circled this one on the calendar. Expect fireworks, big plays, and a fourth quarter that goes down to the wire. But in prime time, at home, I trust Allen to make the final drive count. Bottom line: Bills by three.

Monday, Sept 8

Vikings at Bears (Monday Night Football)

Prediction: 17-13, Bears win.

Actual: 27-24, Vikings win.

If I’m being honest, I don’t see J.J. McCarthy lighting it up this year. The Vikings have talent, sure, but I don’t expect the same kind of statement season they had in 2024. On the other side, I’m all in on Caleb Williams. Pairing him with Ben Johnson feels like the move Chicago’s been waiting for. There’ll be growing pains, but the upside is real. This one’s going to be tight. Bottom line: the Bears cut it close and get it done.